UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Saturday 7/20

The UFC is back at the APEX in Las Vegas with a solid main event with an otherwise forgettable rest of the card. However, there's plenty of closely lined fights so let's see if we can come out profitable on the night.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

** ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books. **

Last event (UFC Denver):

YTD: -

Virna Jandiroba (-125) vs. Amanda Lemos (+105):

In our main event, we have a five round strawweight bout between Virna Jandiroba and recent title challenger Amanda Lemos.  Jandiroba has won three straight and four of her last five.  She’s coming off a unanimous decision over Lupita Godinez.  Lemos is coming off a close unanimous decision victory over Mackenzie Dern and has won three of her last four.  This is your classic striker versus grappler match as Lemos has the striking edge, while Jandiroba is the far superior grappler.  Lemos was dominated on the ground by Weili Zhang and shockingly lasted all five rounds with her.  Jandiroba has solid wrestling and is a more dangerous submission grappler than Zhang.  If she gets as many dominant positions as Zhang, it’s quite likely she finishes the fight.  If Jandiroba can’t score takedowns, then this will be all Lemos who has a big power edge.  However, Jandiroba is solid defensively and will eventually get her wrestling going.  From there, it’s all downhill for Lemos.  Jandiroba snatches up a submission midway through the fight. 

PREDICTION:  Virna Jandiroba by 2nd RD SUB

Steve Garcia (-160) vs. Seung Woo Choi (+135):

In the co-main event, Steve Garcia takes on Seung Woo Choi in the lightweight division.  Garcia has won three straight and four of his last five with all four wins coming by knockout.  Choi snapped a three fight losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Jarno Errens.  Choi was knocked out in two of those three losses.  This one is going to be banger between two strikers with questionable durability.  I slightly favor Garcia in the durability department as Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights.  Garcia puts Choi away inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION:  Steve Garcia by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Kaynan Kruschewsky (-130) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+110):

Kaynan Kruschewsky earned his way to the UFC with a first round submission win on the Contender Series, but had an unsuccessful UFC debut as he was knocked out in the first round by Elves Brener.  Kruschewsky is 15-2 overall with thirteen wins inside the distance, nine by submission.  Kurt Holobaugh is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Trey Ogden after submitting Austin Hubbard to win the veterans versus prospects season of “The Ultimate Fighter”.  After watching Holobaugh be taken down with ease by Ogden and just accept bottom position, it’s hard to pick him against anyone with remotely decent wrestling skill.  Kruschewsky’s durability is concerning as both of his losses have come by first round faceplant knockouts, but he trains out of the Fighting Nerds camp that should have him looking to wrestle here.  Holobaugh is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so he’s dangerous on the ground, but we just saw him offer nothing off his back against Ogden.

PREDICTION:  Kaynan Kruschewsky by DEC

Cody Durden (+100) vs. Bruno Silva (-120):

Cody Durden is coming off a second round submission loss to Tagir Ulanbekov after winning four straight prior.  Bruno Silva has won three straight fights, all inside the distance.  These two were supposed to fight in September, but Durden took a short notice fight against Jake Hadley in August and wasn’t medically cleared for a fairly quick turnaround to face Silva.  These two have trained in the past and Durden apparently didn’t want to take the fight, but Silva had no problem signing on the dotted line.  Durden and Silva have a common opponent in Ulanbekov and while both lost, Silva was far more competitive.  I know MMAth doesn’t always add up, but it’s something to keep in mind here.  Durden is mainly a wrestler, while Silva is the superior striker and submission grappler.  Durden will be looking to wrestle, but Silva has solid takedown defense.  Durden may score some takedowns, but I doubt he can hold down or control Silva long enough, while I believe Silva could have grappling success here. 

PREDICTION:  Bruno Silva by DEC

Bill Algeo (-180) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+150):

Bill Algeo is coming off a controversial first round stoppage loss against Kyle Nelson earlier this year.  Prior to that, he had won four of his last five.  Doo Ho Choi is winless in his last four fights after fighting to a draw with the aforementioned Nelson in his last fight.  Algeo is a high volume pressure based fighter.  He doesn’t wrestle very well, but he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and is extremely durable.  Choi is a striker, but he’s poor defensively and has durability issues as he’s been knocked out in his past two losses and battered by Cub Swanson in an all-time fight.  Choi is going to have to hurt Algeo early, otherwise Algeo is just going to outwork him with the real possibility of putting him away later in the fight.

PREDICTION:  Bill Algeo by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Jeong Yeong Lee (-180) vs. Hyder Amil (+150):

Jeong Yeong Lee won the Road to UFC featherweight final and was then victorious in his UFC debut, defeating Blake Bilder by unanimous decision.  Hyder Amil earned his way to the UFC through the Contender Series and made a successful UFC debut, finishing Fernie Garcia in the second round with strikes.  Amil is undefeated at 9-0 with six wins inside the distance, five by knockout.  This fight is going to come down to the technical skills of Lee versus the brawling and pace of Amil.  Lee comes from a grappling background, but he mostly strikes and while he’s more technical than his opponent, Amil will push forward, look to brawl and fight through exhaustion to outlast his opponents.  Lee probably starts out strong, but the longer the fight goes, Amil will be the more effective fighter dragging Lee into the dogfight he thrives in.

PREDICTION:  Hyder Amil by DEC

Cody Gibson (-205) vs. Brian Kelleher (+170):

Cody Gibson has lost two straight since returning to the UFC, although he lost a razor close decision to Brad Katona in the TUF finale that was a “Fight of the Year” contender.  He’ll take on Brian Kelleher who has lost three straight, all by first round finish.  Gibson comes from a wrestling background, but he’s content to strike and he’ll have a four inch height and five inch reach advantage over Kelleher.  Gibson should have the striking advantage and he’s more durable as well.  The only thing that concerns me is Kelleher has a nasty guillotine choke and Gibson has been finished by guillotine multiple times.  Other than that, Gibson wins this fight comfortably.

PREDICTION:  Cody Gibson by DEC

Miranda Maverick (-230) vs. Dione Barbosa (+190):

Miranda Maverick was originally supposed to face Tracy Cortez here, but after Cortez got moved to last week’s main event she’ll now face Dione Barbosa.  Maverick has won two straight and four of her last five, while Barbosa is coming off an extremely close unanimous decision win over Ernesta Kareckaite in her UFC debut.  Maverick is a well-rounded fighter with good cardio, while Barbosa is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo black belt with questionable cardio.  She came out strong in her debut, but gassed hard and arguably lost the fight.  I already had questions about her cardio and now she’s taking a short notice fight.  Barbosa will be dangerous early, but Maverick should be able to weather the storm and take over in the second and third rounds. 

PREDICTION:  Miranda Maverick by DEC

Loik Radzhabov (-115) vs. Trey Ogden (-105):

Loik Radzhabov is coming off a third round knockout of Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady to improve his UFC record to 2-1, while Trey Ogden is coming off a dominant unanimous decision victory over Kurt Holobaugh.  Radzhabov is a powerful wrestler with questionable cardio, while Ogden is a well-rounded fighter that doesn’t really excel in any department.  Ogden is mainly a grappler, but he does hold an impressive striking based decision over Daniel Zellhuber.  Radzhabov will likely have a strong first round, but all his explosive movements zap his gas tank.  If he can’t put Ogden away early, Ogden should take over the latter part of the fight.

PREDICTION:  Trey Ogden by DEC

Luana Carolina (-110) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-110):

Luana Carolina has won two in a row and is 5-3 overall in the UFC, while Lucie Pudilova is 1-6 in her last seven UFC fights.  This is a low level WMMA fight, but my lean is towards Carolina.  I think she’s a better striker, has good takedown defense and Pudilova isn’t a very good wrestler anyway.  Both are very poor defensive grapplers so if someone gains top control, there could be some domination. 

PREDICTION:  Luana Carolina by DEC

Mohammed Usman (-115) vs. Thomas Petersen (-105):

Kicking off the night is a battle of heavyweights as Mohammed Usman takes on Thomas Petersen.  Usman is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Mick Parkin after winning his first three fights in the UFC, while Petersen is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut.  Usman is a low volume striker with possible wrestling upside, but Petersen comes from a wrestling background and Usman’s wrestling did not look very good against Junior Tafa, going two for twelve on takedown attempts.  If Usman stops the takedowns, he likely wins an uneventful striking affair.  However, Petersen will be the strongest wrestler Usman has faced and I expect him to have success scoring takedowns.

PREDICTION:  Thomas Petersen by DEC

UFC TICKET

SATURDAY JULY 20TH

MAIN CARD:

Virna Jandiroba -125 (1.25u)

Steve Garcia -160 (1.2u)

Kaynan Kruschewsky -130 (0.65u)

Bruno Silva -120 (0.6u)

Bill Algeo -180 (1.35u)

Algeo RD3 +1200 (0.1u)

Hyder Amil +150 (0.5u)

Amil RD3 +1400 (0.1u)

PRELIMS:

Miranda Maverick/Cody Gibson +108 (1u)