UFC Vegas 105: Emmett vs. Murphy Saturday 4/5

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Mexico City) -1.54u

2025 YTD: -8.21u

Lerone Murphy (-310) vs. Josh Emmett (+250):

In the main event, Lerone Murphy takes on Josh Emmett in a five round featherweight bout.  Murphy is coming off a unanimous decision over Dan Ige and has won seven straight since earning a draw with Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut.  The last time we saw Emmett he was brutally knocking out Bryce Mitchell in the first round.  That win snapped a two fight losing streak.  Aside from Emmett having an edge in knockout power, I see this as Murphy’s fight to lose.  He’s not elite in any area, but he’s well-rounded and has youth on his side.  He has some durability concerns so Emmett hurting him wouldn’t surprise me, but Murphy should be too quick for him over the course of five rounds.

PREDICTION:  Lerone Murphy by DEC

Joanderson Brito (-225) vs. Pat Sabatini (+185):

In the co-main event, Joanderson Brito takes on Pat Sabatini in the featherweight division. Brito is coming off a split decision loss to William Gomis that snapped a five fight winning streak with all five wins coming by finish. Sabatini is coming off a first round submission of Jonathan Pearce and is 6-2 in the UFC with three wins by submission and three by decision. Both of his losses have come by knockout.  No matter who wins here, I don’t see it going the distance.  I will back Brito here because he packs power and Sabatini is not comfortable as a striker and has durability issues.  Sabatini will be the better submission grappler, but just don’t see staying conscious long enough to get his grappling game going.

PREDICTION:  Joanderson Brito by 1st RD KO/TKO

Chang Ho Lee (-130) vs. Cortavious Romious (+110):

Chang Ho Lee is coming off a split decision win over Long Xiao in his UFC debut in the Road to UFC bantamweight tournament final. He's 10-1 with six wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He'll face Cortavious Romious who lost a unanimous decision to Gaston Bolanos in his UFC debut. Romious is 9-3 with seven wins inside the distance, five by submission.  There’s been a lot of love for Romious this week, but I’m going with the Lee side.  Romious doesn’t excel particularly well in any area and his grappling can’t be that good when he got out-grappled by a kickboxer in Bolanos.  Lee is a much better wrestler and grappler than Bolanos and he has better cardio than Romious.  Romious probably gets the better of the striking, but I foresee a lot of grappling and expect Lee to come out on top in the exchanges.

PREDICTION:  Chang Ho Lee by DEC

Brad Tavares (-170) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+140):

Brad Tavares is coming off a split decision loss to Jun Yong Park and has now lost four of his last five. His lone win in that stretch is over the corpse of Chris Weidman. He'll face Gerald Meerschaert who is coming off a third round submission loss to Reiner de Ridder. Meerschaert has twelve wins inside the UFC all by finish with eleven by decision. He's been stopped in six of his ten losses, four times by knockout.  This is an interesting fight between two middleweight veterans.  Tavares is your standard wrestle-boxer, while Meerschaert is a crafty and dangerous submission grappler.  Tavares had elite takedown defense, but he’s starting to show some chinks in the armor.  However, Meerschaert isn’t a strong wrestler so I think he’d need Tavares to make a mistake in order to capitalize and get this into his comfort zone on the ground.  Meerschaert’s durability isn’t great, but Tavares has only two knockouts in a UFC career that dates back to 2011.  I’m expecting Tavares to stuff the takedowns and win a slow paced kickboxing affair.

PREDICTION:  Brad Tavares by DEC

Luis Gurule (-260) vs. Ode Osbourne (+210):

Luis Gurule scored a split decision victory over Nick Piccininni on the Contender Series to keep his undefeated record intact. He's now 10-0 with six wins inside the distance, five by knockout. He'll take on Ode Osbourne who last lost three straight and four of his last five.  Gurule comes from a wrestling background, but he prefers to strike and has good cardio.  Osbourne has been pretty disappointing since joining the UFC.  He’s athletic, but he has issues with his durability and cardio.  This will probably be a fairly competitive striking match, but Gurule is the more active striker and should win a decision.

PREDICTION:  Luis Gurule by DEC

Torrez Finney (-305) vs. Robert Valentin (+245):

The third time was the charm for Torrez Finney to finally earn a UFC contract on the Contender Series as he scored a first round ground and pound stoppage. Finney is undefeated at 10-0 with eight wins inside the distance, seven by knockout. He'll face Robert Valentin who made it to the TUF Finale, but was finished by ground and pound in the second round by Ryan Loder. Valentin is 10-4 with nine wins inside the distance, six by submission.  Finney is extremely short for middleweight, but he’s built like a tank.  He’ll give up six inches of height to Valentin, but will only be at a slight reach disadvantage.  Finney is an aggressive wrestler, but he doesn’t have much striking ability so Valentin will definitely have the edge there if he can stuff Finney’s takedowns.  I just don’t see Valentin having too much success staying off his back.  Valentin does have good grappling skills so Finney probably doesn’t get a finish, but should rack up control time on his way to a decision victory.

PREDICTION:  Torrez Finney by DEC

Dione Barbosa (-1000) vs. Diana Belbita (+650):

Dione Barbosa is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Miranda Maverick after defeating Ernesta Kareckaite in her UFC debut. She'll take on Diana Belbita who is coming off a first round submission loss to Molly McCann. Belbita has lost two straight and three of her last four. She's 2-5 in the UFC.  Barbosa is the biggest favorite on the card at -1000 and should absolutely smoke Belbita on the ground.  I mean if you are getting arm-barred by Molly McCann imagine what Barbosa is going to do.  Belbita is the better striker, but I don’t see this fight staying on the feet for too long.  Barbosa by first round submission is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Dione Barbosa by 1st RD SUB

Daniel Frunza (-150) vs. Rhys McKee (+125):

Daniel Frunza is another Contender Series alum making his UFC debut after finishing Vadym Kutsyi in the second round with ground and pound. He's 9-2 with eight wins by knockout. He'll face Rhys McKee who is 0-2 since returning to the UFC and 0-4 overall in the promotion.  Frunza is a pressure boxer, while McKee is your standard kickboxer.  Frunza is more of a proven finisher, but McKee is pretty durable so I’ll be surprised if Frunza just blows right through him.  Maybe Frunza can wear him down and get a late finish, but I’m leaning more towards a decision.

PREDICTION:  Daniel Frunza by DEC

Loma Lookboonmee (-950) vs. Istela Nunes (+625):

Loma Lookboonmee is coming off a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil and has won three straight and five of her last six. Nunes is 0-4 in the UFC and hasn't fought since July of 2013 when she injured her elbow defending a takedown against Viktoria Dudakova.  Nunes was supposed to fight Molly McCann two weeks ago in London, but had visa issues.  Lookboonmee and Nunes both come from striking backgrounds, but Lookboonmee is more of a complete fighter.  Nunes is a sharp striker early, but she has bad cardio and defensive grappling.  Lookboonmee comes from a Muay Thai background, but utilizes good takedowns from the clinch.  The striking should be competitive early, but Lookboonmee should rough her up in the clinch and land a few takedowns.

PREDICTION:  Loma Lookboonmee by DEC

Victor Henry (-205) vs. Pedro Falcao (+170):

Victor Henry is coming off a second round submission loss to Charles Jourdain that snapped a two fight winning streak. He takes on Pedro Falcao who lost his short notice UFC debut to Victor Hugo by unanimous decision. He's 16-4 with eleven wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  Henry is a well-rounded fighter, while Falcao is primarily a grappler. Falcao may be able to score a takedown or two, but I'd expect Henry to defend pretty well and while it's on the feet, he's going to seriously out volume Falcao. Henry by decision is the pick, but he could overwhelm Falcao with volume and force a stoppage.

PREDICTION: Victor Henry by DEC

Martin Buday (-170) vs. Uran Satybaldiev (+140):

We have a late change to this card as Martin Buday was supposed to face Kennedy Nzechukwu, but now he’ll face Uran Satybaldiev who will make his UFC debut on just two days notice.  Satybaldiev is undefeated at 9-0 with seven wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  He was the current LFA light heavyweight champion and will be giving up about 40 pounds to Buday.  Buday is coming off a split decision win over Andrei Arlovski and has won four of five since joining the UFC.  Satybaldiev doesn’t look like anything special and while he’ll be at a size disadvantage, he should have the speed advantage.  Buday is an average heavyweight, but he’s a legit heavyweight and should bully Satybaldiev in the clinch, but I’m not sure I see him getting a finish.

PREDICTION:  Martin Buday by DEC

Talita Alencar (-110) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (-110):

Opening up the prelims is a woman’s strawweight bout between Talita Alencar and Vanessa Demopoulos.  Alencar is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Stephanie Luciano after previously fighting to a unanimous draw with her on the Contender Series. In between those two fights, Alencar scored a split decision win over Rayanne dos Santos in her UFC debut. Alencar is 5-1-1 with three wins by submission and two by decision.  Demopoulos is coming off a first round submission loss via armbar to Jaqueline Amorim. Prior to that, she won two controversial decisions over Emily Ducote and Kanako Murata.  Alencar and Demopoulos are both Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, but Alencar is at a higher level. She's aggressive in pursuing the takedown, but it takes a toll on her cardio. Good thing for her is Demopoulos has awful defensive wrestling. Alencar should be able to score takedowns and rack up control time, but if for some reason Demopoulos is able to keep this standing, she's going to be the busier striker and could squeak out another decision. I'm not betting either side, but I'll say Alencar wins by decision.

PREDICTION: Talita Alencar by DEC

UFC VEGAS 105 TICKET

SATURDAY APRIL 5TH

MAIN CARD:

Lerone Murphy & Brito/Sabatini doesn't go the distance -125 (1.25u)

Joanderson Brito ITD -120 (1.2u)

Chang Ho Lee -130 (0.65u)

Brad Tavares -170 (0.85u)

PRELIMS:

Dione Barbosa/Diana Belbita under 2.5 rounds -140 (1.05u)

Daniel Frunza -150 (0.75u)

Victor Henry/Torrez Finney -105 (1.05u)

Martin Buday -170 (0.85u)