UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Saturday 3/15

The UFC is back at the APEX and it's not a star studded card, but there should be plenty of violence.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 313): -3.2u

2025 YTD: -8.2u

Marvin Vettori (-160) vs. Roman Dolidze (+135):

In the main event, Marvin Vettori will take on Roman Dolidze in a five round middleweight bout.  These two first met at UFC 286 with Vettori coming out victorious by unanimous decision in a close fight.  Vettori has lost two of his last three and hasn’t fought in almost two years after losing a five round unanimous decision to Jared Cannonier.  Dolidze has won two straight and is coming off a first round stoppage via injury over Kevin Holland.  I’m a little surprised that Vettori isn’t a bigger favorite, but he is coming in off a long layoff and shoulder surgery.  I’m expecting this fight to play out like the first.  Vettori is durable, has great cardio and will throw more volume.  Dolidze has the power edge and is the most likely to score a finish, but we’ve seen him in a five round fight before against Nassourdine Imavov and it was a pretty poor performance.  Vettori by decision is a pretty easy pick for me.

PREDICTION:  Marvin Vettori by DEC

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-195) vs. Chidi Njoukani (+160):

In the co-main event, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos meets Chidi Njokuani in a welterweight bout.   Dos Santos is coming off a first round knockout of Zach Scroggin and is now 2-1-1 in his last four.  Njokuani is coming off a unanimous decision over Jared Gooden and has won two straight after dropping three straight prior to that.  This should be a fun striking fight as dos Santos is a Capoeira style striker while Njokuani is a traditional Muay Thai guy.  Money has come in dos Santos, but I think this is a pretty close match and I like the Njokuani side.  Dos Santos struggled with the length of Randy Brown and Njokuani has a similar frame.  Njokuani has some durability issues and can be taken down, but I’m not willing to rely on dos Santos leaning on his wrestling.  Njokuani by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Chidi Njokuani by DEC

Alexander Hernandez (-220) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+180):

Alexander Hernandez is coming off a split decision over Austin Hubbard, but prior to that he had lost four of his last five.  He’ll face Kurt Holobaugh who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Kaynan Kruschewsky and has won two of three in his third stint in the UFC.  I do not trust Hernandez and will always pick against him when he’s the favorite and facing a tough guy like Holobaugh.  Hernandez doesn’t deal well with adversity and doesn’t have the best cardio.  If he looks to wrestle he could make this easy as Holobaugh has pretty poor defensive wrestling.  However, I think Hernandez will just be looking to strike and Holobaugh is better suited for a dogfight.  Give me the underdog in Holobaugh by decision or late stoppage.

PREDICTION:  Kurt Holobaugh by DEC

Da’Mon Blackshear (-425) vs. Cody Gibson (+330):

Da’Mon Blackshear is coming off a first round submission of Cody Stamann that snapped a two fight losing streak.  He’s now 3-3-1 in the UFC with all three wins coming by finish.  He’ll face Cody Gibson who has won two straight after losing his first two fights in his second stint in the UFC.  I’m a little surprised at how wide the line is, but Blackshear is coming off a very impressive performance over Stamann that showed off improved striking.  Blackshear is a dangerous submission grappler and four of Gibson’s ten losses have come by submission although it’s been many years since he was submitted.  Gibson comes from a wrestling background, but he’s been pretty content to strike in the UFC.  Blackshear isn’t a strong wrestler so this may just turn into a striking affair where I give a slight edge to Blackshear.  Blackshear by decision is the pick, but he good snatch up a choke in a transition.

PREDICTION:  Da’Mon Blackshear by DEC

Diyar Nurgozhay (-395) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+310):

Diyar Nurgozhay punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round knockout on the Contender Series and improved his undefeated record to 10-0.  Eight of his wins have come inside the distance, six by knockout.  He’ll face Brendson Ribeiro who picked up his first UFC win with a split decision over Caio Machado after losing his first two fights.  Nurgozhay has seven wins in the first round, but has shown good cardio in his two decision wins.  Nurgozhay isn’t the most aggressive striker and neither is Ribeiro, but his durability is a concern and Nurgozhay obviously has power.  Nurgozhay could also look to wrestle here as Ribeiro was held down for long periods against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.  Nurgozhay is the more well-rounded fighter and should win this however he wants and I think it comes in the form of a knockout inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION:  Diyar Nurgozhay by 1st RD KO/TKO

Kevin Vallejos (-535) vs. SeungWoo Choi (+400):

Kevin Vallejos will be making his UFC debut after earning a UFC contract on the Contender Series in his second attempt.  He’s coming off a first round knockout of Cam Teague after losing a unanimous decision to Jean Silva in his first appearance.  It was the only loss of his career as he’s 14-1 with twelve wins inside the distance, ten by knockout.  He’ll take on SeungWoo Choi who is coming off a first round knockout loss to Steve Garcia and has lost four of his last five, two by first round knockout and another by second round submission.  He has been knocked down six times in his last four fights so his durability is certainly an issue and that’s not good against a volume striker like Vallejos.  I’m not expecting much grappling in this fight and with Choi having durability issues, I see Vallejos working him over to the head and body and putting him away in the second round.

PREDICTION:  Kevin Vallejos by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-200) vs. Ryan Spann (+165):

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is coming off a unanimous decision win over Robelis Despaigne and has won five of six fights since joining the UFC.  He’ll face Ryan Spann who will be making his heavyweight debut.  Spann is coming off a first round submission win over Ovince Saint Preux that snapped a three fight losing streak.  Spann is always dangerous early, but he has a bad habit of starting to fade once the second round starts.  Cortes-Acosta originally started out as a baseball player in the Cincinnati Reds organization, but a fight with a teammate led him to the boxing ring and eventually the cage as a mixed martial artist.  Cortes-Acosta is a solid heavyweight and his boxing is obviously his greatest skill, but he showed off some grappling in his last fight and he has good cardio.  He’ll need to avoid the early moments against Spann and watch his neck, but if he can extend this fight into the second and third rounds, he’ll either pot shot his way to a decision or put Spann away if he really commits to it.

PREDICTION:  Waldo-Cortes Acosta by DEC

SuYoung You (-520) vs. AJ Cunningham (+390):

SuYoung You won the Road to UFC bantamweight tournament with a unanimous decision win over Baergeng Jieleyesi.  He is 14-3 with eight wins inside the distance, five by submission.  He’ll take on AJ Cunningham who is coming off a first round knockout to L’udovit Klein in his UFC debut.  Cunningham is 11-4 with eight wins inside the distance.  Two of his four losses have come by knockout with the other coming on the Contender Series against Steven Nyuguen.  Cunningham will be making the drop to bantamweight after competing at featherweight on the Contender Series and lightweight in his short notice debut. Cunningham is not very good, but he's a training partner of Bryce Mitchell and has an absolutely tragic life story. He's a horrible defensive striker, but that really isn't You's game so we should see how good his grappling is here. He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Mitchell so he could be able to survive against You, but is probably going to give up multiple takedowns as You is a solid wrestler and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as well.  I’ll go with You in a lopsided decision.

PREDICTION:  SuYoung You by DEC

Josias Musasa (-750) vs. Carlos Vera (+525):

Josias Musasa is another undefeated fighter coming from the Contender Series.  He’s 8-0 and coming off a split decision victory over Otari Tanzilovi, the first time he ever saw the final bell.  His first seven wins all came by knockout, six in the first round.  He faces Carlos Vera who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rinya Nakamura in his UFC debut.  Vera is 11-4 with six wins inside the distance, five by submission.  Two of his four losses have come by submission.  Musasa is inexperienced and had faced weak competition until his Contender Series appearance, but he beat a solid undefeated fighter in Tanzilovi. Musasa is raw and athletic and he'll be dealing with a tricky grappler in Vera who is a student of Ryan Hall, but is not nearly as dangerous of a submission grappler. Vera is going to want this fight on the ground, but he's not a great wrestler and Musasa's takedown defense checked out against Tanzilovi. Vera can be controlled on the ground by good grapplers, but I think it's in Musasa's best interest to keep this fight standing and look to tee off on Vera and avoid any potential leg locks. Musasa is a massive favorite and I think he'll cover his price tag with a first or second round knockout.

PREDICTION: Josias Musasa by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Stephanie Luciano (-205) vs. Sam Hughes (+170):

Stephanie Luciano fought to a draw on the Contender Series with Talita Alencar, but still earned a UFC contract so the UFC decided to run it back officially in the Octagon with Luciano emerging victorious via unanimous decision.  She’s 6-1-1 with two wins by knockout and four by decision.  She faces Sam Hughes who is 4-2 in her last six fights after starting her UFC career 0-3.  Hughes’ wins have come when she faces fighters with poor cardio or poor grappling and I think she’s in for a rough matchup with Luciano who is a more athletic striker with good cardio and survived the ground with a strong grappler in Alencar.  Hughes is at a severe athletic disadvantage so Luciano by decision will be the pick.

PREDICTION:  Stephanie Luciano by DEC

Andre Lima (-485) vs. Daniel Barez (+370):

Andre Lima has won three straight since joining the UFC, improving his record to 10-0.  He has five wins by knockout, four by decision and the infamous DQ win in his UFC debut.  He’ll face Daniel Barez who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Victor Altimirano after being submitted by Jafel Filho in his UFC debut.  Lima and Barez are both solid strikers with Lima having a strong kickboxing background, while Barez has solid boxing.  Barez is more aggressive as a wrestler, but Lima showed off he has some wrestling of his own in his last win over Felipe dos Santos.  Honestly I’m not expecting much wrestling or grappling in this fight.  Lima isn’t a high volume striker, but he’s defensively sound and think he will control the action and pick up another decision win.

PREDICTION:  Andre Lima by DEC

Josiane Nunes (-180) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+150):

After starting her UFC career with three straight wins, Josiane Nunes has lost two straight since dropping to bantamweight.  She’ll face Priscila Cachoeira in her second bantamweight bout after multiple failed weight cuts to flyweight forced her up.  Cachoeira is coming off a third round submission loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius in her bantamweight debut.  Nunes is giving up five inches in height, but actually has a two inch reach advantage.  Nunes and Cachoeira have no interest in grappling so expect a slugfest.  Nunes has better offensive and defensive striking metrics, but she’s still there to be hit so it’s a matter of who will outlast the other and I’m going with the underdog in Cachoeira.

PREDICTION:  Priscila Cachoeira by DEC

Carli Judice (-300) vs. Yuneisy Duben (+240):

Kicking off the card is a very low level fight in the women's flyweight division between Carli Judice and Yuneisy Duben.  Judice lost a split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite on the Contender Series, but still earned a contract and then lost a split decision to Gabriella Fernandes in her UFC debut. She's just 3-2. Duben is also coming off the Contender Series where she scored a shocking first round knockout as a +600 underdog on some books. She's 6-0 with six wins inside the distance, five by knockout.  Prior to the Contender Series every one of Duben’s opponents were making their pro debuts so her competition has been absolutely awful.  There truly isn’t much to go on so all we really know is Duben has power.  She’ll be taking on a high volume striker in Judice, but also a defensively porous one.  Against Kareckaite, Judice was out landed 184-168 in significant strikes, but against Fernandes she won the strikes battle 169-119.  Those are great volume numbers, but horrific defensive metrics.  Both fighters are very inexperienced, but Judice has at least been facing UFC level competition.  I’m not convinced Duben is some murderous power puncher so it should just be three rounds of volume striking that favors Judice.  I’m not willing to play Judice at her price, but she’ll be my pick.  As far as wagering goes, the fight to the distance at -150 seems like a solid play.

PREDICTION:  Carli Judice by DEC

UFC VEGAS 104 TICKET

SATURDAY MARCH 15TH

MAIN CARD:

Marvin Vettori -160 (1.2u)

Chidi Njokuani +160 (0.5u)

Njokuani DEC +550 (0.1u)

Kurt Holobaugh +180 (0.5u)

Holobaugh DEC +500 (0.2u)

Holobaugh RD3 +1600 (0.1u)

Diyar Nurgozhay ITD -140 (1.05u)

Kevin Vallejos/SeungWoo Choi doesn't start RD3 -160 (0.8u)

PRELIMS:

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -200 (1u)

Cortes-Acosta DEC +200 (0.25u)

Cortes-Acosta RD3 +900 (0.1u)

SuYoung You DEC +140 (0.5u)

Josias Musasa ITD -150 (0.75u)

Andre Lima DEC -110 (0.55u)

Priscila Cachoeira +150 (0.5u)

Carli Judice/Yuneisy Duben goes the distance -160 (0.8u)