UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs. Erceg Saturday 3/29

The UFC is taking the show on the road again as they head to Mexico City. Elevation is a key factor here and there's a bunch of wide lines that I don't particularly love so I'm not going to force parlays or take stabs at decision props when the elevation could wreak havoc. Just going to keep a tight core and wish for the best.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC London): +4.3u

2025 YTD: -6.67u

Brandon Moreno (-250) vs. Steve Erceg (+200):

In the main event, former UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno takes on one time title challenger Steve Erceg in a five round flyweight bout.  Moreno had lost back to back split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, but bounced back with a dominant unanimous decision win over Amir Albazi.  Erceg nearly upset Pantoja for the flyweight title, but a tactical error in the fifth round cost him and then he was knocked out in the first round by Kai Kara-France.  I’ll admit I thought Erceg had no shot against Pantoja, but he proved me wrong and he’s a legit flyweight contender.  I expect this fight to be very competitive, but think Moreno will edge it out on the scorecards with striking volume and wrestling upside, if he goes to it.

PREDICTION:  Brandon Moreno by DEC

Manuel Torres (-120) vs. Drew Dober (+100):

In the co-main event, Manuel Torres takes on Drew Dober in the lightweight division.  Torres is coming off a first round knockout loss to Ignacio Bahamondes after winning his first three fights in the UFC, all by first round finish.  Dober is coming off a third round doctor stoppage to Jean Silva and has lost two straight and three of his last four.  This fight is going to be straight violence as neither fighter likes to take a step back.  I think Dober is going to give Torres a vet lesson here as Torres isn’t ready for this level of competition.  He’s a quick finisher, but Dober is incredibly durable even though he’s starting to get hurt more.  Dober by first round knockout is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Drew Dober by 1st RD KO/TKO

Joe Pyfer (-285) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+230):

Joe Pyfer is coming off a first round knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault and has won four of five since joining the UFC.  He has three wins by first round knockout and the other coming by submission.  He’ll face long-time UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Rodriguez that took place at middleweight even though it was contracted to be a welterweight bout.  In his last six fights against legit middleweights, Gastelum is 1-5 with the lone win coming over Ian Heinisch.  Gastelum should be fighting at welterweight, but he’s too undisciplined to make the weight so here we are.  Pyfer will have a five inch height and three inch reach advantage.  I’m never going to pick Gastelum against legit middleweights or a middleweight prospect like Pyfer.  Gastelum still has solid boxing, but the size and strength disadvantages should be too much to overcome.  I don’t see Pyfer getting the finish, but I can see him landing a few takedowns on his way to a decision win.

PREDICTION:  Joe Pyfer by DEC

Raul Rosas Jr. (-520) vs. Vince Morales (+390):

Raul Rosas Jr. is coming off a unanimous decision win over Aoriqileng and has won four of five since joining the UFC with two wins by submission and won by knockout.  He’ll take on Vince Morales who is coming a close unanimous decision loss to Jakobe Smith just six weeks ago.  Morales has lost two straight since returning to the UFC and is 3-7 overall in the promotion.  Rosas is still just 20 years old so he’s a work in progress, but so far his wrestling and grappling have been his best weapons.  Morales is a solid veteran, but Rosas should be able to outwrestle him and hang on the feet.  Rosas doesn’t really like to strike, but he did well enough against Aoriqileng and I feel like Morales is on that same level.  Rosas is good at taking the back so maybe he can lock in a submission, but I’m leaning towards a decision win.

PREDICTION:  Raul Rosas Jr. by DEC

David Martinez (-485) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+370):

David Martinez will be making his UFC debut after earning his UFC contract on the Contender Series via unanimous decision. He's 11-1 with nine wins by knockout and two by decision. One of his knockout wins is over UFC veteran Francisco Rivera. He'll take on Saimon Oliveira who has lost both of his fights since joining the UFC. He hasn't fought in over two years since being finished by Daniel Marcos in the second round via knees.  Martinez and Oliveira are likely to strike it out here. Martinez comes from a karate background so he has strong leg kicks, while Oliveira is a Muay Thai striking stylist. Martinez isn't much of a wrestler and neither is Oliveira, but Oliveira is definitely more dangerous as a submission grappler. I don't see much grappling at all so I'll go with the cleaner striker in Martinez.

PREDICTION: David Martinez by DEC

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-160) vs. Kevin Borjas (+130):

Ronaldo Rodriguez is coming off a unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne and has won two straight since joining the UFC and seven straight overall. He's 17-2 with twelve wins inside the distance, seven by knockout. He faces Kevin Borjas who has lost two straight since joining the UFC with his most recent loss being a second round knockout to Alessandro Costa. Borjas is 9-3 with eight wins by knockout.  Rodriguez is not a technically skilled fighter, but he has power in his hands and decent grappling. Borjas is a more technical striker, but he doesn't carry the same power or cardio. Rodriguez will be there to be hit, but he'll pressure forward and eventually see him getting the better of Borjas, most likely on the mat where he's weakest.

PREDICTION:  Ronaldo Rodriguez by 2nd RD SUB

Edgar Chairez (-275) vs. CJ Vergara (+225):

Edgar Chairez is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joshua Van and has lost two of three since joining the UFC. However, those losses are to two highly touted prospects in Van and Tatsuro Taira. He'll take on CJ Vergara who is coming off a first round knockout loss to Ramazan Temirov and has lost two straight.  Chairez and Vergara both like to slug it out so this should be a fun one and I'll give the power and durability edge to Chairez. Vergara builds as the fight goes, but I'm not concerned with Chairez fading. Chairez has some defensive wrestling and grappling issues, but I don't expect that to play a factor here as Vergara doesn't look to wrestle. It should be competitive on the feet, but I'll go with Chairez to edge it out with the bigger power shots.

PREDICTION: Edgar Chairez by DEC

Ateba Gautier (-470) vs. Jose Medina (+360):

Ateba Gautier will be making his UFC debut after he scored a second round knockout of Yura Naito on the Contender Series. Gautier is 6-1 with five wins by knockout, four in the first round. He faces Jose Medina who is a Contender Series alum as well, but earned his contract in a loss. Medina lost his UFC debut by unanimous decision to Zach Reese. He's 11-4 with ten wins inside the distance, eight by knockout.  Gautier is only 22 years old so he's obviously raw and green, but he's incredibly athletic and explosive. He'll have a four inch height and seven inch reach advantage over Medina as well as a massive speed advantage. The UFC is looking to showcase Gautier here, but there are tons of question marks regarding his cardio and durability and while Medina isn't good, we know for sure that he can take a beating and keep coming for three rounds. Add in fighting at elevation and who knows what Gautier looks like if he can't get a quick finish, especially since Medina has never been knocked out. I strongly suggest you do not add Gautier to your parlays and Gautier by decision isn't really juicy enough so I'm just going to sit back and gather more data on Gautier.  For the sake of a pick, I’ll go with Gautier by first round knockout.

PREDICTION:  Ateba Gautier by 1st RD KO/TKO

Christian Rodriguez (-160) vs. Melquizael Costa (+135):

Christian Rodriguez has won five of his last six and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Austin Bashi, adding another prospect's undefeated record to his resume. His last three fights have been at featherweight as he can no longer make the bantamweight limit. He's 2-1 with decision wins over Bashi and Isaac Dulgarian and a first round submission loss to Julian Erosa. He takes on Melquizael Costa who is coming off a first round submission of Andre Fili just five weeks ago. He's won two straight by submission.  Rodriguez and Costa match up well, but I do slightly favor Rodriguez in this matchup for his superior defensive wrestling, grappling, durability and cardio. Costa absolutely wilted under the pressure of Steve Garcia and while Rodriguez isn't the powerful striker that Garcia is, he has the pressure and pace that can wear Costa down.  The pick will be Rodriguez by decision.

PREDICTION:  Christian Rodriguez by DEC

Lupita Godinez (-245) vs. Julia Polastri (+200):

Lupita Godinez is coming off back to back unanimous decision losses to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Prior to that, she had won four straight. She'll take on Julia Polastri who picked up her first UFC win with a split decision over Cory McKenna after dropping a unanimous decision to Josefine Knutsson in her UFC debut.  Godinez is getting a step down here and a completely different stylistic matchup from her previous opponents in Dern and Jandiroba. While those were elite grapplers, Polastri is just your average striker. Godinez comes from a wrestling background and has solid boxing. She doesn't always lean on her wrestling, but she should here as Polastri was taken and held down by McKenna.  Godinez by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Lupita Godinez by DEC

Rafa Garcia (-425) vs. Vinc Pichel (+330):

Rafa Garcia is coming off a second round ground and pound stoppage loss to Grant Dawson that snapped a two fight winning streak. He'll face Vinc Pichel who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Ismael Bonfim after a two year layoff. Prior to that, he lost a unanimous decision to Mark O. Madsen that snapped a three fight winning streak.  Pichel is taking this fight on five weeks notice after replacing Joaquim Silva and at 42 years old, the end is near. I'm surprised to see Garcia as this big of a favorite, but you have to factor in Pichel's age and inactivity over the years. Garcia is going to be the more aggressive striker and has wrestling upside as Pichel doesn't defend takedowns well. I'd be very surprised if Garcia found the finish so decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Rafa Garcia by DEC

Jamall Emmers (-485) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+370):

Jamall Emmers is coming off a first round knockout loss to Nate Landwehr a year ago and is now 3-4 in the UFC with two split decision losses.  He’ll take on Gabriel Miranda who is coming off a second round knockout loss to Morgan Charriere.  He’s 1-2 in the UFC with a first round submission win over Shane Young and a second round knockout loss to Benoit Saint Denis in his UFC debut.  All seventeen of Miranda’s wins have come inside the distance, sixteen by submission.  Emmers is a solid fighter.  He just has poor fight IQ and questionable durability, but his striking and wrestling are good.  All he has to do in this match up is avoid grappling with Miranda who has poor striking and cardio.  The longer the fight goes, the more tired and sloppy Miranda is going to get and Emmers should put him away with strikes.

PREDICTION:  Jamall Emmers by 2nd RD KO/TKO

MarQuel Mederos (-155) vs. Austin Hubbard (+130):

In the opening prelim, we have a lightweight bout between MarQuel Mederos and Austin Hubbard.  Mederos won by first round knockout on the Contender Series and then won a competitive unanimous decision over Landon Quinones in his UFC debut.  I thought he lost the Quinones fight, but it wasn’t a robbery.  He’s 9-1 with six wins by knockout and three by decision.  Hubbard is coming off a split decision loss to Alexander Hernandez and is 1-2 in his second stint in the UFC.  Mederos is a solid striker, but nothing special in my opinion and Hubbard is just a generalist clinging to a roster spot.  Mederos is the better athlete and I slightly favor him in the striking exchanges and think he has the takedown defense to stifle Hubbard.  They’ve both trained in Colorado during their careers so the elevation shouldn’t affect them too badly.  In the end, Mederos should win a competitive decision. 

PREDICTION:  MarQuel Mederos by DEC

UFC MEXICO CITY TICKET

SATURDAY MARCH 29TH

MAIN CARD:

Brandon Moreno/Joe Pyfer -110 (1.65u)

Drew Dober +100 (1u)

Ronaldo Rodriguez -160 (0.8u)

Rodriguez SUB +350 (0.2u)

PRELIMS:

Christian Rodriguez -160 (1.2u)

Jamall Emmers ITD -125 (1.25u)