UFC London: Edwards vs. Brady Saturday 3/22

The UFC heads to London so we've got an early start especially for you West Coast gamblers.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 104): -2.6u

2025 YTD: -10.8u

Sean Brady (-150) vs. Leon Edwards (+130):

In the main event, Sean Brady takes on former UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards in a five round welterweight bout.  Edwards was originally supposed to face Jack Della Maddalena, but JDM got shifted to a title fight so in steps Brady who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Gilbert Burns and has won two straight since suffering his only loss to Belal Muhammad.  Brady is 7-1 in the UFC with three wins by submission and four by decision.  This will be Edwards’ first fight since losing the title to Muhammad.  Brady isn’t the same kind of pressure fighter that Muhammad is, but he’s a strong wrestler and grappler and that’s something Edwards has struggled with.  Edwards is the better technical striker, but it doesn’t mean much when you are hardly throwing strikes.  Brady is heading into hostile territory, but his wrestling and grappling control should earn him a decision over Edwards.

PREDICTION:  Sean Brady by DEC

Carlos Ulberg (-290) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+235):

In the co-main event, Carlos Ulberg faces former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz in the light heavyweight division.  Ulberg is coming off a unanimous decision win over Volkan Oezdemir and has won seven straight, four by first round knockout, since losing his UFC debut.  Blachowicz hasn’t fought since losing a split decision to Alex Pereira in July of 2023.  He has one win in his last four fights and it was because Aleksandar Rakic blew out his knee.  He was gifted a draw with Magomed Ankalaev and was submitted in the second round by Glover Teixeira.  Blachowicz is an interesting test for Ulberg, but I believe he’s past his prime.  Ulberg is untested as a defensive wrestler and grappler and I expect Blachowicz to implement the same clinch heavy approach he did with Pereira, but how successful he will be remains a mystery.  Blachowicz is durable so I’d be surprised if Ulberg put him away.  Instead, I see Ulberg landing the more impactful strikes as he defends takedowns.

PREDICTION:  Carlos Ulberg by DEC

Gunnar Nelson (-120) vs. Kevin Holland (+100):

After a two year layoff, Gunnar Nelson returns and will welcome Kevin Holland back to the welterweight division.  Holland went 1-2 at middleweight and was finished in the first round in back to back fights by Roman Dolidze and Reiner de Ridder.  Nelson has won two straight after submitting Bryan Barbarena via armbar.  Nelson has won eight of his ten UFC fights by submission.  Nelson is a high level grappler and even though Holland is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt himself, there are levels to this game.  On the feet, Holland is the better striker as Nelson is very low volume karate style striker.  Holland may defend takedowns a little better at welterweight, but I see Nelson eventually scoring takedowns and most likely smothers Holland for three rounds.

PREDICTION:  Gunnar Nelson by DEC

Alexia Thainara (-220) vs. Molly McCann (+180):

Molly McCann was originally supposed to face Istela Nunes, but now she’ll face Alexia Thainara who makes her UFC debut on a weeks notice.  Thainara won a unanimous decision on the Contender Series and is 11-1 overall with seven wins inside the distance, six by submission.  McCann is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Bruna Brasil and has lost three of her last four.  Her lone win in that stretch is a first round armbar submission over Diana Belbita who stinks.  This is a much more difficult fight for McCann as Thainara has the wrestling and grappling to give her fits.  Thainara finds the submission inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION:  Alexia Thainara by 1st RD SUB

Jordan Vucenic (-375) vs. Chris Duncan (+295):

Jordan Vucenic had an unsuccessful UFC debut, but he faced a tough opponent in Guram Kutateladze.  Vucenic is 13-3 overall with eight wins inside the distance, six by submission.  He’s a former Cage Warriors featherweight champion and has wins over PFL standout Paul Hughes and UFC veteran Morgan Charriere.  He’ll take on Chris Duncan who has won three of four since joining the UFC and coming off a first round submission win over Bolaji Oki.  Vucenic had a tough debut, but I like him in this spot against Duncan.  Vucenic comes from a striking background, but he’s been a more aggressive grappler lately.  I think he’s a more technical striker and submission grappler than Duncan, but Duncan is still dangerous.  However, Vucenic should have a big edge in durability.  Vucenic could hurt Duncan on the feet, but I see him getting the takedown and hunting for a submission.  Vucenic by first or second round submission is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Jordan Vucenic by 2nd RD SUB

Morgan Charriere (-130) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+110):

Morgan Charriere is coming off a second round knockout of Gabriel Miranda and has won two of three, both by knockout, since joining the UFC.  The loss is a very close split decision to Chepe Mariscal.  He faces Nathaniel Wood who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Daniel Pineda and has won four of five since moving up to featherweight.  This fight will come down to the sharper striking, but low volume approach of Charriere versus the aggressive give one to take one style of Wood.  Charriere will need to land some big shots, otherwise I see the busier approach of Wood earning him the decision.

PREDICTION:  Nathaniel Wood by DEC

Jai Herbert (-110) vs. Chris Padilla (-110):

Jai Herbert is coming off a unanimous decision win over Rolando Bedoya and is 2-2-1 in his last five fights.  He’ll take on Chris Padilla who has won two straight since joining the UFC.  He submitted James Llontop in his UFC debut on extremely short notice and picked up a doctor stoppage over Rongzhu.  Herbert is a solid striker that I’ve struggled to back because I’m wary of his durability, but it hasn’t been an issue lately.  Padilla has looked better than expected, but Herbert is a better fighter than Llontop and Rongzhu.  Herbert by decision is my pick. 

PREDICTION: Jai Herbert by DEC 

Lone’er Kavanagh (-260) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+210):

Lone’er Kavanagh had a successful UFC debut taking a unanimous decision victory over Jose Ochoa to keep his undefeated record intact.  He’s 8-0 with five wins by knockout and three by decision.  He faces Felipe dos Santos who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Andre Lima and has lost two of three since joining the UFC.  His win over Victor Altimirano was extremely close as he was taken down nine times, but squeaked out a split decision.  Dos Santos will bring the fight to Kavanagh, but Kavanagh should be the sharper striker and if things get a little too hairy on the feet, he can look to wrestle as dos Santos clearly doesn’t defend takedowns well.

PREDICTION:  Lone’er Kavanagh by DEC

Mick Parkin (-140) vs. Marcin Tybura (+120):

In the lone heavyweight fight on the card, Mick Parkin puts his undefeated record on the line against Marcin Tybura.  Parkin has won four straight and is coming off a first round knockout of Lukasz Brzeski, his first stoppage in the UFC.  Parkin is 10-0 with seven wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  Tybura is coming off a second round doctor’s stoppage of Jhonata Diniz and is 2-2 in his last four.  Tybura will be a good test for Parkin who has been fighting bottom of the barrel heavyweights since joining the UFC.  Tybura is a solid veteran and I don’t think Parkin has the power to hurt him and his grappling is untested against a fighter the caliber of Tybura.  I’ll go with Tybura to give Parkin a vet lesson and take his 0.

PREDICTION:  Marcin Tybura by DEC

Christian Leroy Duncan (-485) vs. Andrey Pulaev (+370):

Christian Leroy Duncan is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues, but had won three of his first four fights in the UFC, all by stoppage.  He’ll face Andrey Pulaev who is coming off a unanimous decision win on the Contender Series.  He’s 9-2 with seven wins inside the distance, five by knockout.  Duncan is a flashy striker who is starting to incorporate more clinch work into his game.  Pulaev is scrappy, but he should be a step behind Duncan all fight as Duncan cruises to a decision.

PREDICTION:  Christian Leroy Duncan by DEC

Shauna Bannon (-170) vs. Puja Tomar (+140):

Shauna Bannon is coming off a split decision win over Alice Ardelean after losing a unanimous decision to Bruna Brasil in her UFC debut.  Bannon is 6-1 with two wins by knockout and four by decision.  She takes on Puja Tomar who is coming off a split decision win over Rayanne Amanda as an almost +300 underdog.  Tomar is 9-4 with six wins by knockout and three by decision.  This is a very low level WMMA fight. Bannon and Tomar prefer to strike, but neither fighter is particularly good. Bannon is more likely to push the action, while Tomar will be looking to counterstrike. If Tomar was more of a pressure fighter, I'd definitely pick her but Bannon probably slightly edges it out on the cards. She has potential wrestling upside too, but at -170 I'm not touching her.

PREDICTION: Shauna Bannon by DEC

Nathan Fletcher (-130) vs. Caolan Loughran (+110):

Nathan Fletcher is coming off a second round submission via arm-triangle choke over Zygimantas Ramaska in his UFC debut.  Fletcher is 9-1 with eight wins inside the distance, seven by submission.  He faces Caolan Loughran who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jake Hadley and has lost two of three since joining the UFC.  This fight will come down to how effective Fletcher’s grappling is because he is not very comfortable as a striker.  Loughran is your typical wrestle-boxer so if he can stuff Fletcher’s takedowns, he should be able to pot shot his way to a decision and he’ll be my pick.

PREDICTION:  Caolan Loughran by DEC

Guram Kutateladze (-395) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+310):

Opening up the prelims is a lightweight bout between Guram Kutateladze and Kaue Fernandes.  Kutateladze is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jordan Vucenic that snapped a two fight losing streak.  Fernandes is coming off a first round knockout win over Mohammad Yahya after dropping a split decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut.  This is an interesting fight because of some intangibles related to Kutateladze. He's pulled out of a multitude of fights because of injuries then slowed badly against Elves Brener and was knocked out in the third round. Then against Vucenic, he was dropped in the first round, but was able to rally back and win rounds two and three. Fernandes is a sharp striker who should be able to compete with Kutateladze on the feet and potentially hurt him so this line being so wide is surprising. Fernandes struggled with Diakiese's wrestling, but Kutateladze isn't an aggressive wrestler.  I’m going to take a shot on Fernandes here to either win by knockout or close decision.

PREDICTION:  Kaue Fernandes by 2nd RD KO/TKO

UFC LONDON TICKET

SATURDAY MARCH 22ND

MAIN CARD:

Sean Brady -150 (0.75u)

Gunnar Nelson -120 (0.6u)

Alexia Thainara SUB +350 (0.3u)

Jordan Vucenic ITD -120 (0.6u)

Nathaniel Wood +110 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Jai Herbert -110 (0.55u)

Herbert DEC +200 (0.25u)

Marcin Tybura +120 (0.5u)

Tybura DEC +275 (0.2u)

Christian Leroy Duncan/Andrey Pulaev over 1.5 rounds -160 (0.8u)

Duncan DEC +250 (0.2u)

Caolan Loughran +110 (0.5u)

Loughran DEC +200 (0.25u)

Kaue Fernandes +310 (0.3u)

Fernandes KO/TKO +800 (0.1u)