UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Saturday 4/12

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 105) +0.05u

2025 YTD: -8.16u

Alexander Volkanovski (-160) vs. Diego Lopes (+135):

In the main event, former UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes will battle it out over five rounds for the vacant UFC featherweight title that was previously held by Ilia Topuria.  Volkanovski held the title from December of 2019 to February of 2024 before he was knocked out in the second round by Topuria.  He’s lost three of his last four, but two of those losses came to Islam Makhachev at lightweight.  Lopes has won five straight since dropping his UFC debut to Movsar Evloev.  Three of those wins came by first round finish with the last two coming by decision.  My only concern in this fight is Volkanovski’s chin.  He suffered two brutal knockouts and Lopes definitely has power, but I’m happy Volkanovski took a long layoff after the Topuria fight.  I’ve been fading Lopes for awhile and the results have not been good!  But I’m going back to the well as Volkanovski is such a better fighter than Lopes.  Aside from the durability concerns, he’s a better striker and wrestler and has proven championship cardio.  Lopes is a dangerous submission grappler, but his defensive wrestling is weak and he doesn’t have the cardio to fight hard for five rounds.  Volkanovski by decision or late stoppage in the fourth or fifth round is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Alexander Volkanovski by DEC

Paddy Pimblett (-150) vs. Michael Chandler (+125):

In the co-main event, Paddy Pimblett and Michael Chandler will clash in a five round non-title lightweight bout.  Pimblett has won six straight since joining the UFC with four wins by submission and two by decision.  He’s coming off a first round submission via triangle choke over King Green.  Chandler is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira and has lost four of his last five.  Pimblett came in with a lot of hype that was undeserved, but he’s proven to be a solid fighter and Chandler will be a nice test.  Chandler is a powerful striker and strong wrestler, but he doesn’t pace himself so his cardio falls off the longer the fight goes.  Pimblett isn’t as powerful of a striker, but he has a good kicking attack and he’s tough.  Chandler is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but Pimblett is definitely the more dangerous submission grappler.  It was surprising that Chandler lasted five rounds with Oliveira and didn’t get submitted, but that doesn’t mean Pimblett can’t do it.  I’ve gone back and forth on this fight, but I’m going with the Pimblett side.  He’s definitely going to have to weather the explosive moments early of Chandler, but if Chandler is expending his energy winging big bombs and slams, he’s going to gas quick.  As Chandler starts to gas, Pimblett will find his opening and see him locking up a choke.

PREDICTION:  Paddy Pimblett by 3rd RD SUB

Yair Rodriguez (-190) vs. Patricio Freire (+160):

Yair Rodriguez is coming off a third round submission loss to Brian Ortega and has lost two straight and three of his last five. He'll welcome Patricio "Pitbull" Freire to the UFC after "Pitbull" finally got his release from the PFL/Bellator. He went 24-6 in Bellator winning the featherweight and lightweight titles, but failed to become the bantamweight champion, losing to UFC veteran Sergio Pettis. It's nice to see "Pitbull" finally in the UFC, but he's 37 years old now so his best years are behind him. He'll be giving up five inches of height and reach to Rodriguez who likes to employ a flashy kick heavy approach, while Freire has solid boxing. Rodriguez's defensive wrestling and grappling are his weaknesses and Freire is a solid grappler, but I think this is going to be all striking and in that case, I have to side with Rodriguez. Freire is a counter striker, but I see him eating a ton of kicks and just struggling to land anything meaningful on Rodriguez.

PREDICTION: Yair Rodriguez by DEC

Jean Silva (-190) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+160):

Jean Silva has won four straight since joining the UFC, all by finish and is coming off a first round knockout of Melsik Baghdasaryan about six weeks ago. He'll face Bryce Mitchell who is coming off a third round stoppage over Kron Gracie after suffering a brutal knockout at the hands of Josh Emmett. Mitchell is 8-2 in the UFC with six wins by decision. Silva has a ton of hype now and he opened as a big favorite in this spot, but steady money has come in on Mitchell and I agree with the movement. Silva is a powerful and dangerous striker, but we really don't know how good his ground game is. If Charles Jourdain can land takedowns on him, Mitchell should as well and Mitchell is a far superior grappler. Give me Mitchell by decision as he halts Silva's hype train.

PREDICTION: Bryce Mitchell by DEC

Nikita Krylov (-150) vs. Dominick Reyes (+125):

Opening up the PPV main card is a light heavyweight bout between Nikita Krylov and Dominick Reyes. Krylov has won three straight, but he hasn't fought in over two years since submitting Ryan Spann in the first round. After losing four straight, three by knockout, Reyes has won two straight, both by knockout. Most recently he finished Anthony Smith with ground and pound in the second round in December. Reyes has looked good in his last two fights, but I'm not ready to say he's back after having major concerns with his durability leading up to the Dustin Jacoby fight. When Reyes isn't getting hurt and finished, he's a very good fighter. Anyone that can push Jon Jones to the limit is obviously skilled. It just went downhill fast after that. Reyes and Krylov are evenly matched as strikers and neither aggressively wrestles, but I'd give a slight edge to Krylov in that department. Krylov was a kill or be killed fighter to start his UFC career, but has gone to a decision in four of his last seven fights. I'll say Krylov picks up another knockout in the first or second round.

PREDICTION: Nikita Krylov by 1st RD KO/TKO

Sean Woodson (-190) vs. Dan Ige (+160):

In the featured prelim, Sean Woodson takes on Dan Ige in a featherweight bout. Woodson is 6-0-1 in his last seven fights and coming off a first round knockout of Fernando Padilla. Ige has lost two straight and three of his last four, but one of those losses came to Diego Lopes on just hours notice. Woodson will have a seven inch height and reach advantage over Ige and while he has slick boxing his defense isn't the greatest and Ige has power in his hands. It'll take some time for Ige to figure out his range, but once he does I see him hurting Woodson and putting him away shortly after.

PREDICTION: Dan Ige by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Virna Jandiroba (-135) vs. Xianon Yan (+115):

Virna Jandiroba is coming off a second round submission over Amanda Lemos and has now won four straight. She'll face Xianon Yan who is coming off a unanimous decision over Tabatha Ricci and has won three of her last four. This fight pits the grappling of Jandiroba against the striking of Yan and I'm high on the Jandiroba side. Yan really struggles with good grapplers and Jandiroba's striking is good enough to where she can close the distance and go to work with her wrestling. A submission is certainly on the table for Jandiroba, but I think a decusion is more likely.

PREDICTION: Virna Jandiroba by DEC

Chase Hooper (-900) vs. Jim Miller (+600):

Chase Hooper is coming off a first round submission via armbar over Clay Guida and has won four straight, the last three by submission. Now he'll face another long time UFC veteran in Jim Miller who is coming off a first round submission via guillotine choke over Damon Jackson. Miller has won three of his last four, all by stoppage. I'm admittedly a huge Jim Miller guy, but this is not a great matchup for him against a much younger Hooper. Miller's best chance is to land a big shot on the feet, otherwise he's not matching the pace and grappling of Hooper. The line is insanely wide, but I don't see Hooper losing. He'll be one step ahead in the grappling so he'll either take a decision or lock up a submission.

PREDICTION: Chase Hooper by DEC

Julian Erosa (-300) vs. Darren Elkins (+240):

Julian Erosa has won back to back fights over Christian Rodriguez and Ricardo Ramos with both wins coming by first round submission via guillotine choke. He'll take on Darren Elkins who is coming off a unanimous decision over Daniel Pineda. Elkins has won two straight and three of his last four. I'm seeing some love for Elkins this week, but can't say I agree because Erosa doesn't fit the mold of bad grappler with bad cardio that Elkins usually feasts on. Erosa definitely has durability concerns, but he's a much cleaner striker and has the footwork to avoid the lumbering attack of Elkins. If Erosa engages in a firefight, he could certainly get clipped, but he should win this fight. Maybe he snatches up a choke or batters Elkins for a late stoppage, but I'm leaning more towards decision.

PREDICTION: Julian Erosa by DEC

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-230) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+190):

Michal Oleksiejczuk has lost three straight and four of his last five with three of the losses coming by submission. He faces Sedriques Dumas who has won three of his last four since losing his UFC debut to Josh Fremd. All three wins have come by decision. Oleksiejczuk has hit a rough stretch, but he's been facing high level competition and now he gets a step down in Dumas. Dumas looked like a dangerous finisher on the regional scene, but has been anything but in the UFC. His three wins are over Cody Brundage, Abu Azaitar and Denis Tiuliulin. Not exactly guys you should be carrying to decisions. I'm a little worried about Oleksiejczuk's defensive wrestling, but he's a far more dangerous striker and finisher than Dumas. He's also been training with the Fighting Nerds which I like so I'm expecting him to come out and finish Dumas early.

PREDICTION: Michal Oleksiejczuk by 1st RD KO/TKO

Sumudaerji (-155) vs. Mitch Raposo (+130):

Sumudaerji has lost three straight, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Charles Johnson. Before that, he was submitted by Tim Elliott and Matt Schnell. He'll take on Mitch Raposo who lost a split decision to Andre Lima in his UFC debut last June. Raposo is 9-2 with seven wins inside the distance, four by knockout. His other loss is to UFC veteran Jake Hadley on the Contender Series. Sumudaerji is the better striker here and he'll have an eight inch reach advantage over Raposo, but he's a pretty awful grappler and that's a strength of Raposo's. I'm going to take the underdog here in Raposo because if he looks to aggressively wrestle and grapple, he should dominate Sumudaerji.

PREDICTION: Mitch Raposo by DEC

Marco Tulio (-425) vs. Tresean Gore (+330):

It took Marco Tulio two tries on the Contender Series to make it to the UFC. He won by unanimous decision the first time, but didn't impress Dana White. In his second appearance, he knocked out Matthieu Duclos in the second round and got the contract. Then in his UFC debut, he knocked out Ihor Potieria in the first round. Tulio is 13-1 with ten wins inside the distance, nine by knockout. He faces Tresean Gore who has back to back wins over Antonio Tricoli and Josh Fremd by guillotine choke after starting his UFC career 0-2. Gore clearly has a nasty guillotine choke, but I don't see Tulio falling for that and at just 5-2 overall, I don't think Gore should even be in the UFC. He was raw and intriguing as a 3-0 prospect on "The Ultimate Fighter", but that was four years ago. Tulio is too much for him on the feet and should get a finish insie the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Marco Tulio by 1st RD KO/TKO

Nora Cornolle (-190) vs. Hailey Cowan (+160):

Kicking off the early prelims is a woman's bantamweight bout between Nora Cornolle and Hailey Cowan. Cornolle won her first two fights in the UFC, but is coming off a split decision loss to Jacqueline Calvalcanti. Cowan hasn't fought in almost two years after losing her UFC debut to Jamey-Lyn Horth by unanimous decision. She's since pulled out of two fights with Zarah Fairn and Tamires Vidal. I say this often, but this is another low level WMMA fight, but I'm fairly confident in the Cornolle side. She's not great, but from what I've seen of her in her three UFC fights, she should have no trouble with Cowan who is a gymnast turned mixed martial artist. Cowan has been out of action due to injuries and personal issues so maybe she has improved because she was just a low volume clinch heavy fighter before. Cornolle is definitely the more comfortable striker and has more power. She should win a pretty lopsided decision or possibly stop Cowan late with strikes.

PREDICTION: Nora Cornolle by DEC

UFC 314 TICKET

MAIN CARD:

Alexander Volkanovski -160 (1.6u)

Volkanovski RD4 +1800 (0.1u)

Volkanovski RD5 +2000 (0.1u)

Paddy Pimblett -150 (0.75u)

Pimblett SUB +220 (0.25u)

Yair Rodriguez -190 (0.95u)

Bryce Mitchell +160 (0.5u)

Nikita Krylov -150 (0.75u)

Krylov KO +275 (0.2u)

PRELIMS:

Dan Ige +160 (0.5u)

Ige KO +400 (0.25u)

Virna Jandiroba -135 (1.35u)

Jandiroba DEC +200 (0.25u)

Michal Oleksiejczuk/Julian Erosa -110 (1.1u)

Mitch Raposo +130 (0.5u)

Raposo DEC +350 (0.2u)

Nora Cornolle/Marco Tulio -115 (1.15u)