Tennis Picks 4/13

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000.

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Sunday, 4/13, 7am ET:

Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz, Under 21.5 Total Games (-130), .5u.

Honestly I hate this match and the prices/odds. If I had to make a pick I’d go with this. Both Alcaraz and Musetti have had slow starts throughout the week, especially with Musetti coming back from a set down in four of his five matches here. Alcaraz came back from a set down twice out of his four matches. Yesterday we saw him take the first set which led to a straight sets win over ADF. Although there were quite a few breaks in that first set, eventually leading to a tiebreak to Alcaraz. To me if Alcaraz can win the first set then we may get a repeat of his ADF match where he takes it home in the second set. Assuming Alcaraz wins in straight sets, this under bet should be good. Musetti has spent a lot more energy this week, but I will say he didn’t show any signs of fatigue in the comeback semifinal win over De Minaur. Alcaraz leads this head to head four wins to one loss, and it has been about three years since Musetti took a set off Alcaraz. Musetti’s only win came at the 2022 final in Hamburg, but since then he hasn’t proven to be a threat. I do think the clay gives him more of a chance, but three of their past meetings have been on clay so I still expect Alcaraz to win. Musetti hasn’t won a final since 2022 as well, so the statistics don’t look good for him in this stage of tournaments, let alone at this high level of Masters 1000. This is Musetti’s first Masters 1000 final, and Alcaraz’s seventh. He has only lost one Masters 1000 final to Djokovic, so ultimately I’d be surprised if Musetti wins this. It’s a tough match to bet, but I’m hoping Alcaraz takes care of it in straight sets and keeps this under games in play.

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TENNIS VIP TICKET

SUNDAY 4/13

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Musetti v Alcaraz, un21.5 Games (-130) l .5u