Tennis Picks 4/12

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000.

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Saturday, 4/12, 7am ET:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Carlos Alcaraz, Over 20.5 Total Games (-115), .5u.

I just feel like these odds and prices are really insulting to ADF’s tennis currently, especially at Monte Carlo. He’s had two deep runs here before to the quarter finals and the finals, so this semifinal run is not a big surprise to anyone who follows tennis. On top of it, Alcaraz has been underperforming expectations all year. I will admit the expectations are ridiculously too high for him to begin with, but his only other showing at Monte Carlo was a first match exit in a close three sets to Korda in 2022. ADF looked to be in excellent form yesterday in a convincing two sets win over Popyrin. Meanwhile Alcaraz has had two matches this week that went three sets. I will say he was up against very tough players, Cerundolo and Fils, but I think ADF at Monte Carlo has a good chance to push Alcaraz into this over play. 20.5 seems too low, and their only previous meeting went three sets on the clay at Barcelona in 2023. ADF has been in good form this year, even on hard courts, and he’s a fast mover so I expect him to give Alcaraz trouble.

Saturday, 4/12, 8:30am ET:

Alex De Minaur -1.5 Games Spread (-120) vs Lorenzo Musetti, .5u.

I still can’t bring myself to bet Musetti right now. I haven’t been impressed with his tennis this week. He has had slow starts, having to really fight to win in three sets multiple times. I feel like his opponents have been choking or letting him off the hook. Meanwhile ADM has been efficient with straight sets wins over Medvedev and Dimitrov, although I suspect Dimitrov was not healthy. ADM had to fight in the first match against Machac, but after that he hasn’t worked up a sweat. This head to head is split at one win each, with Musetti winning on grass, a much faster surface. This surprises me since ADM usually plays better on faster surfaces, but maybe in this matchup he would prefer the slower clay. I hesitate to bet an over or an under here, but both of their previous meetings were lengthy and competitive. Instead I’m going to back ADM to continue his usual efficiency and rely on him to not let go of a lead.

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TENNIS VIP TICKET

SATURDAY 4/12

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• ADF v Alcaraz, ov20.5 Games (-115) l .5u

• ADM -1.5 Games Spread (-120) l .5u