Tennis Picks 4/11
- J-Rube
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000.
Friday, 4/11, 5am ET:
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin, Over 21.5 Total Games (-135), .75u.
This over is somewhat automatic to me. ADF loves clay and has played very well at this tournament in the past, including a quarterfinal run and a final. But, ADF is usually far from efficient, often letting go of leads and making wins difficult for himself. This exact scenario played out just yesterday when ADF was up a set and a break against Draper, and yet somehow found himself in a third set. So, although I expect ADF to win, I’ll be surprised if he is efficient. Popyrin is a big server and is having some tough results in the past few months, so his confidence has not been great. Still, he’s coming off an upset win over Ruud, an excellent clay court player. Even when Popyrin loses he tends to rack up games since his serve is difficult to return, so although the over plays didn’t hit yesterday, I’m dipping back in today.
Friday, 4/11, 6:30am ET:
Arthur Fils vs Carlos Alcaraz, Over 21.5 Total Games (-115), .5u.
Although these two have never played each other before, both are great on clay. Alcaraz tends to be less definitive against new opponents. What really makes me take this bet is looking at how Fils has played against the top ten ranked men in the past. Many of the matches have been competitive and he has a 47% win rate. Both Alcaraz and Fils are awesome movers and shot makers so I’m hoping for a compelling duel, although there is always the chance that Alcaraz is locked in. Still, I’ll sit on this over play.
Friday, 4/11, 8am ET:
Grigor Dimitrov vs Alex De Minaur, Under 22.5 Total Games (-120), .5u.
This is definitely a tough match to make a bet on, but with only four matches and the draw narrowing down I’ll put something on the under. I would expect ADM to win, and he has been very efficient lately. Over the course of the past year both of these guys have just been getting better and better, but both have also had some injury concerns. ADM this year has been in good shape so I’m not actually worried about his hip injury from seven months ago. Dimitrov has had a lot more trouble this year with injuries, having to retire during matches four times this year, but he has seemed to be in good shape this past month. ADM leads this head to head three wins to two losses, all on hard courts. I think Dimitrov is more comfortable on clay, but this week he has struggled against wildcard Vacherot and Tabilo. Meanwhile ADM had a good three set win over tough opponent Machac, and a decisive two set win over Medvedev. ADM has just been more convincing this year and this week, so I have to think he wins this and since he is usually efficient I’ll play the under games.
Friday, 4/11, 9:30am ET:
Stefanos Tsitsipas -2.5 Games Spread (-115) vs Lorenzo Musetti, .5u.
Tsitsipas is a beast at this tournament, already winning the title three times, including last year. His history at Monte Carlo includes 20 straight sets results, with only four matches going to decider third sets. Tsitsipas has only lost three matches here, so based on just these statistics not only is he extremely successful at Monte Carlo, but he is also usually efficient. In this case you could play the under, Tsitsipas to win in straight sets, or this spread, and still have a great argument. To me the spread may be safest if you think this could go to three sets. Musetti hasn’t looked great to me, until his win yesterday over Berrettini. But, Berrettini did not have a good serving day, and most of his game relies on the serve. So Musetti had a lot of help there. Other than that, Musetti struggled and had two comeback wins over Bu Yunchaokete and Lehecka. In comparison, Tsitsipas came from behind against Thompson, but completely destroyed Borges in two breadstick sets (6-1, 6-1) yesterday. Against a guy who is supposed to be great on clay, that’s a statement score. If Tsitsipas wins this match in straight sets, this games spread should cover unless it’s two tiebreak sets. The numbers suggest he should get a straight sets win, but if it does go to three sets then the spread would still have a chance. Musetti has never defeated Tsitsipas before, with Tsitsipas winning five times, four of which were clay matches. Four of their meetings were competitive, so I like playing the spread in case this also turns out to be a three set match.
TENNIS VIP TICKET
FRIDAY 4/11
ADF v Popyrin, ov21.5 Games (-135) l .75u
Fils v Alcaraz, ov21.5 Games (-115) l .5u
Dimitrov v ADM, un22.5 Games (-120) l .5u
Tsitsipas -2.5 Games Spread (-115) l .5u
Favorites are in bold.
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