Tennis Picks 3/25
Miami Masters 1000.
ATP, Tuesday, 3/25, 12pm ET:
Gael Monfils vs Sebastian Korda, Over 23.5 Total Games (-105), .5u.
Gael Monfils (+125) to win over Sebastian Korda (-150), .5u.
Although Korda started this year strong with a final showing at Adelaide back in January, he has struggled since then with lengthy losses to Vukic (Australian Open), Virtanen (Marseille), and Monfils (Indian Wells). Since he lost in the first round of Indian Wells he has had some time off and extra time to get used to conditions here in Miami. Still, overall Monfils has had the better year with more consistency, earning the title at Auckland and getting a few good wins at Indian Wells before losing to Dimitrov in a third set tiebreak. I can usually count on Monfils to have lengthy matches, but I will admit there is some danger in betting Monfils here. His first three matches this tournament have all gone three sets, so he has been on the court a lot more than Korda’s two straight sets wins over Spizzirri and Tsitsipas. But, over the years I have learned it’s tough to count Monfils out just based on his fitness. Whenever he looks down and out he can come up with magic. Korda has been struggling for about a year now since coming back from a wrist injury. Although I love his clean tennis, he surprisingly has a tough time getting consistent results. Overall I back Monfils since he has had the better year and has been showing better tennis, but he also seems to win me over games bets often so I like sticking to that plan as well as his moneyline.
Tuesday, 3/25, 12:30pm ET:
ATP: Francisco Cerundolo (-110) to win over Casper Ruud (-110), .5u.
Although Ruud has made the finals here in 2022, Cerundolo actually has the better win percentage at this tournament in comparison. Granted, Ruud has played more matches, but Cerundolo tends to play very well here and leads this head to head slightly, four wins to three losses. Ruud also tends to underperform at Masters 1000 events compared to the other top players in his category. He has also been more of a gamble to rely on within the past year or two, struggling to defeat the opponents he supposedly should defeat. Ruud tends to fall into the habit of hanging out behind the baseline and playing solid defense. When he is confident and willing to play aggressive tennis then he is tough to defeat. Cerundolo takes more risks and he is playing very well this year, so I expect him to play confident tennis today. So far he has played efficiently, with straight sets wins over Muller and impressively over Paul. Ruud has already struggled with a three sets win over Kecmanovic and a close two sets win over Tabilo. Admittedly that is an excellent win over Kecmanovic since their matches tend to be difficult against each other. Still, I can’t trust Ruud to play aggressively and I almost expect him to be too passive against Cerundolo who will be willing to crack his forehand for winners.
ATP, Tuesday, 3/25, 3:30pm ET:
Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic, Over 21.5 Total Games (-140), .5u.
Lorenzo Musetti +3.5 Games Spread (-105) vs Novak Djokovic, .5u.
I know Djokovic is the GOAT, but his career is obviously winding down, along with his tennis. This is one of the worst starts of the year for Djokovic and although his two matches here were against somewhat softer opponents, he still had to play tiebreaks in both matches against Hijikata and Ugo Carabelli. The good news for him is the head to head here, with Djokovic leading Musetti seven wins to one loss. They actually met four times last year, but surprisingly none of those matches were on hard courts, with Djokovic taking all four wins. Still, with Musetti coming off an upset win over Auger Aliassime, I feel like he has a stronger chance to be a threat, especially with Djokovic looking weaker compared to the rest of his impressive career. Surprisingly Djokovic has been struggling when the points go longer, so if Musetti can extend points and hold a rally tolerance he stands a decent chance to keep the score close and challenge the GOAT. Musetti usually struggles and plays lengthy matches even when he holds leads, so with the total games count seemingly low I like taking the over. I can’t rely on Djokovic holding a lead, nor Musetti.
TENNIS VIP TICKET
TUESDAY 3/25
Monfils v Korda, ov23.5 Games (-105) l .5u
Monfils to win (+125) l .5u
Cerundolo to win (-110) l .5u
Musetti v Djokovic, ov21.5 Games (-140) l .5u
Musetti +3.5 Games Spread (-105) l .5u
Favorites are in bold.
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