NBA Props: Wednesday 1/4

Great start to the journey yesterday!

Got my first play ready to go, but still have to evaluate a large chunk of this slate

Will be updating as the day goes along w/ more plays so be sure to check back before tip!

---

TREY MURPHY OV 14.5 POINTS (-117) | 1U CAESARS

• W/ ZION AND INGRAM BOTH OUT FOR THE PELICANS AGAINST THE FAST-PACED ROCKETS, MANY ARE RUSHING TO BET CJ MCCOLLUM OVERS, BUT WHAT IF I TOLD YOU THE GUY IS 1-4 TO HIS OVER IN THESE SPOTS AVG 21.4 PPG

• I THINK THE VALUE MORE SO LIES W/ THE SNEAKY GOOD TREY MURPHY

• IN THESE SPOTS THIS SZN, MURPHY IS 3-1 TO THE OVER (AVG 18.2 PPG) AND IS AVERAGING 34 MINS!

• WELL GUESS WHAT!? WITH 30+ MINUTES AT HOME, MURPHY IS 6-1 TO THE OVER (AVG 18.4 PPG) AND MOST OF THOSE GAMES INCLUDED ZION & INGRAM!

• NOW W/O THEM, HE IS GOING TO FACE A ROCKETS DEFENSE THAT HAS BEEN STOUT AT HOME BUT IS HORRENDOUS ON THE ROAD SITTING 29TH IN DEF EFF OVER THE L30

• AND THEY SPECIFICALLY ARE TERRIBLE AGAINST SHOOTING GUARDS

• OVER THE L30 DAYS THEYRE ALLOWING THE MOST PPG, AND 3RD MOST 3PM TO OPPOSING SHOOTING GUARDS

• THIS IS A BIG-TIME SMASH SPOT FOR MURPHY AND AT THIS NUMBER, I CONSIDER IT A MUST-PLAY FOR TODAY

---

MASON PLUMLEE UNDER 11.5 POINTS (-112) | 1U BARSTOOL

• MASON PLUMLEE HAS BEEN ON AN INSANE HOT STREAK LATELY AND AS A RESULT, HE’S CASHED HIS L6/8 GAMES (AVG 14.8 PPG) AND 3 STRAIGHT (AVG 18)

• NOW THAT IS GREAT AND ALL, BUT THEN WHY IS HIS TOTAL AT THE LOWLY TOTAL OF 11.5 JUICED TO THE UNDER ON SOME BOOKS?

• POINTSBET WENT THE EXTRA MILE AND MOVED THIS DOWN TO 10.5! A NUMBER HE’S CASHED HIS L8/9!

• UNLESS THE BOOKS BECAME A CHARITY OVERNIGHT, SEEMS LIKE THEY THINK HE GOES UNDER HERE

• AND I FIRMLY AGREE BECAUSE HE HAS THE SINGLE WORST MATCHUP FOR WHAT HE DOES FROM A SHOOTING PERSPECTIVE

• 82% OF PLUMLEE’S SHOTS ARE COMING AT THE RIM AND NOW HAS TO FACE A GRIZZLIES TEAM THAT IS ALLOWING OPPONENTS TO CONVERT JUST 51.8% OF THOSE OVER THE L30 DAYS

• THAT IS 10% LOWER THAN THE NEXT TEAM! AND CONSIDERING PLUMLEE IS ONLY SHOOTING ABOUT 8 TIMES A GAME DURING THIS SPAN, THAT PROJECTS TO ONLY 8 POINTS

• TO HIT OUR MARK THAT WOULD REQUIRE ABOUT 12 SHOTS AND PLUMLEE HAS GONE OVER 10 ATTEMPTS ONCE!

• MEANWHILE, GUYS LIKE SABONIS, JOKIC, AND AYTON HAVE ALL GONE UNDER THEIR MARKS VS MEMPHIS IN THE L2W WHILE ON HOT STREAKS

• IN PLUMLEE’S L3 GAMES VS ADAMS HE HAS 6,4, AND 7 POINTS (AVG 5.6) AND FOULED OUT IN 2 OF THEM!

• I THINK JA GETS PLUMLEE IN SIMILAR TROUBLE HERE AND WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT W/ ADAMS INSANE DEFENSE, THAT IS THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR AN UNDER

---

MARKELLE FULTZ OV 6.5 ASSISTS (+116) | .75U FANDUEL

• CALL ME NUTS, BUT I LIKE THE SPOT QUITE A BIT FOR FULTZ

• EVERYBODY AND THEIR MOTHER IS OUT FOR THE MAGIC, SO FULTZ WILL OPERATE AS THE MAIN BALL HANDLER AND SHOULD SEE A MINS BOOST

• AND IN HIS L2 GAMES AGAINST THE THUNDER W/ 30+ MINS, FULTZ WALKED AWAY WITH 8 AND 10 ASSISTS

• SINCE 2020 W/ 30+ MINS, FULTZ HAS CASHED HIS L4/5 HOME GAMES (AVG 7.4)

• NOW HE FACES A THUNDER THAT IS ALLOWING MUCH MORE ASSISTS TO PG THAN TO START THE YEAR

• THE L5/6 POINT GUARDS TO FACE THE THUNDER HAVE CASHED THEIR TOTAL AND ARE AVG 8 PER GAME

• THE THUNDER HAVE ALLOWED THE 7TH MOST APG TO PG OVER THE L30 DAYS AND THIS GAME TOTAL IS SET AT NEARLY 230.5

• WE DON’T HAVE THE BIGGEST SAMPLE SIZE, SO I’LL TAKE MY CHANCES AT +MONEY HERE FOR .75U

---

KEVON LOONEY OVER 10.5 REBOUNDS (+112) | .75U FANDUEL

• SEEMS A BIT CRAZY TO TAKE ANYBODY ON THE GLASS AGAINST DUREN, BUT LOONEY IS SIMPLY BEASTING AT HOME

• HE’S HIT THE TOTAL IN HIS L7/10 HOME GAMES (AVG 11.5) AND IS SET FOR EVEN MORE MINUTES TODAY AS THERE ARE ZERO BACKUP CENTERS ON THE ROSTER

• EVEN KUMINGA WHO WOULD BE THE SMALLEST CENTER IN RECORDED HISTORY, IS OUT SO HE’S TOP SHOTTA AT THE 5

• WHAT THIS HAS RESULTED IN IS 3 STRAIGHT GAMES OVER 26 MINUTES

• W/25+ MINUTES LOONEY IS 8-1 TO THE OVER IN HIS L9 (AVG 13.9) AND AT HOME IT’S BEEN 7 STRAIGHT CASHES

• EVEN AGAINST THE ROCKETS AND BULLS, WHO ALLOW THE FEWEST AND 3RD FEWEST REBS TO C ON THE SZN AND OVER THE L30 DAYS.. LOONEY REACHED 12+ IN BOTH

• THIS IS A PISTONS TEAM THAT IS 28TH IN OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ON THE ROAD OVER THE L30 DAYS AND W/ MISSES WILL COME MORE REB CHANCES

• THEY’VE ALLOWED THE 9TH MOST RBG TO C BOTH OVER THE L30 DAYS AND L2W, AND W/ DUREN ESSENTIALLY GLUED TO THE BASKET DUE TO HIS SHOOTING ABILITY, I THINK LOONEY HITS THE MARK HERE AT THE +PRICE!

---

BEAVER'S PLAYS

TREY MURPHY OV 14.5 POINTS (-117) | 1U CAESARS

MASON PLUMLEE UNDER 11.5 POINTS (-112) | 1U BARSTOOL

MARKELLE FULTZ OV 6.5 ASSISTS (+116) | .75U FANDUEL

KEVON LOONEY OV 10.5 REBOUNDS (+112) | .75U FANDUEL