2024 Kentucky Derby Picks
The Kentucky Derby is a ton of fun to bet. Now that 31 states passed putting wagers on a mobile app, why not have a ticket. If you haven't bet horse racing before, most of it is relatively simple. If you want to have the basic ticket, pick a horse to win. The place bet is the odds of the horse you select finishes 1st or 2nd. The show is the odds finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The bigger payouts are the exacta (picking two horses to finish 1st and 2nd in the exact order), trifecta (1st, 2nd, and 3rd exact), and superfecta (1-4 exact). Obviously, these are very hard to win, but offer massive payouts. In a field like the Kentucky Derby (massive field), these are even harder still. Think of it like a parlay, don't expect to hit on them, but it's fun to throw a couple dollars on it.
These are the basic bets, and what I'll be giving out.
The Kentucky Derby is a difficult race to bet on just because of the sheer number of horses in the race. Twenty horses participate every year (unless a horse is scratched), and some of these are super long odds.
There are three horses that are pretty low odds, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Catching Freedom. Let's be real - one of these should win the race. Obviously, it's not a sure-fire bet, but there's a great chance at this happening. BUT, the last two winners were 15-1 odds, and 30-1 odds, so like I said anything can happen in the Derby. Fierceness is probably the best horse out there in my opinion, he's definitely the fastest. When he's on in a race, it's going to be hard to catch him. He's already won a handful of races and won the last race at the Florida Derby.
Sierra Leone has won three of the last four races he's raced as well, so I think he's the one that will give the most problems for Fierceness. He's actually rated the #1 horse going into the race, even though he has the second-best odds.
I'll be throwing money on Just A Touch. He opened at 22-1 and is all the way down to 10-1. He's extremely fast, and Justify is his sire, the horse who won the Triple Crown in 2018, he's definitely worth taking a look at.
Some longshots to look at are Resilience, Honor Marie, and Just Steel.
Also, not that it matters, but it terms of trends, the #5 horse has won the most Kentucky Derbys at 10 (this horse is Catalytic at 30-1) and the #17 gate has never won (Stronghold, 20-1. This was Fierceness but with the Encino scratch, everyone moved up a gate).
Below are the bets I'm putting down. Again, the Kentucky Derby has a crazy number of entrants. Anything can happen. It's a fun race, and there's a bunch of smaller races you can bet beforehand.
You can put any of these horses to place and show as well.
KENTUCKY DERBY BETS
MAY 4
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